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Situational Handicapping in Basketball - Bryan Leonard 2/25/2010

Situations dictate a great deal how a team might
perform in a contest. These can include revenge
spots, common opponents, or the second of back
to back nights in the NBA. Examining how a team
performed in past similar situations can indicate
many things about the makeup
of a team. For example, the Cleveland Cavaliers are
struggling through a three-game skid and an
unimpressive home victory. But a closer look shows
the situations were difficult, playing at Charlotte in
the second of a back to back spot, then heading to
Orlando for a tough
conference battle .
With the whole country watching on national TV,
the home town Magic was really fired up. The Magic
wanted to remind everyone that they are the
defending Eastern Conference champions. Their
six-game series win last postseason against the
Cavs vaulted them to the NBA Finals. "I think some
people considered it a fluke," Coach Stan Van
Gundy said. "It's
not a fluke when you win a playoff series." Clearly
the talented home team had a chip on their
shoulder, making it an even tougher spot for the
Cavs.
I recall a few years ago in college hoops when I
had UCLA over Memphis. Several situational angles
were present in that match up. First off, it was a
revenge spot as Memphis had scored 88 points on
the Bruins early in the season, an 88-80 Memphis
win.
However, that was VERY early in the season, and
UCLA was not a poor defensive team. They
improved incredibly as the season went along
defensively. This is not surprising, as head coach
Ben Howland has a long history of getting his
teams to play terrific defense. The
rematch was a great spot for the Bruins to apply
some revenge in the form of their choking defense.
In addition, UCLA impressed me as they were 15-5
against the spread when the line is 3 points or less.
That showed me they had been able to win tightly
contested ball games.
Plus, the Bruins were 20-6 ATS that season in the
role of an underdog! They were also an amazing
11-1 ATS in road games revenging a loss. Those
are all situations that explain a lot about a team's
character. Secondly, UCLA had been shooting lights
out prior to playing
Memphis, averaging over 50% shooting from the
field in 6 of their previous 7 games. Again, those
numbers not only don't lie but explained a lot
about the make-up of the team.
Conversely, take a look at a team like UConn this
season, a club that has all kinds of talent and
depth, yet they have been unpredictable,
underachieving (and money-burners). And in close
games, forget it. The Huskies have been awful in
close contests. Even their coach
said several times how he didn't like the way they
rarely play a full 40 minutes of basketball. In short,
there has been something missing with the
Huskies.
The year that George Mason went to the Final
Four, I was on them in the tournament because of a
key situational handicapping spot. I mentioned in
my analysis before the game, "George Mason has
proven that they belong here with solid wins over
Michigan State, North
Carolina and Wichita State. They held those three
opponents to 43.3%, 35.9% and 31.2% from the
field." Again, the situations mentioned were the
caliber of play the Patriots faced. And they faced
them well, playing great defense and shooting well
from the field. Past situations can help predict
future events in sports, at least with respect to the
number.
Situational handicapping happens constantly and
it's important to understand what to look for and
how to apply those edges with respect to the
betting number. That can help you become a sports
prophet for profit!

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