< Back to Article List

Super Bowl Subtlety: Totals & Props - Scott Spreitzer 1/26/2010

The Colts against the Saints! Certainly television
executives are delighted with this Super Bowl
matchup, as offense sells tickets and excites
ratings. This Super Bowl finds both teams with
dynamic quarterbacks and a slew of skill position
talent on offense.

The numbers alone can hint at a potentially fun
contest: The Colts have the No. 2 passing offense
behind 4-time MVP QB Peyton Manning (33 TDs, 16
INTs), WR Reggie Wayne (1,264 yards) and TE Dallas
Clark. Manning finished 30-of-44 for 246 yards
against the Ravens, then completed 26-of-39
passes for 377 yards and 3 TDs with no
interceptions against the NFL's No. 1 defense in a
30-17 win over the NY Jets. He faces a New Orleans
defense ranked 25th.

The Saints counterpunch with QB Drew Brees, who
has an incredible array of targets with WRs Marques
Colston (1,074 yds), Devery Henderson and Robert
Meachem, plus TE Jeremy Shockey, while the
ground game has a three-headed attack with Pierre
Thomas (793, 5.4 ypc), Mike Bell and Reggie Bush.
Brees (34 TDs, 11 picks, 4,388 yards) leads the top
offense in football and set an NFL record with 70.6%
completions.

While folks around the country are trying to weigh
the edges with the point spread, don't overlook
other wagering avenues such as the total and the
hundreds of proposition bets that will be available
leading up to Super Sunday.

Totals can offer just as much value as sides, and
many times even more so. I had my Playoff Total of
the Year on the Over in the AFC Championship
between the Colts and Jets and cashed early in the
fourth quarter when the Colts scored on a 15-yard
TD pass. That's one edge with totals: You can win
your wager long before the game ends and not
have to sweat out a close cover in the final minute.

One thing I looked at was that the previous week
Chargers QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates
were eating up the Jets' defense, jumping out to a
7-0 lead, and seemingly controlling things up front.
But the Chargers abandoned the advantage for
some reason and tried to run more on first down,
which didn't make much sense. Since the Colts
didn't run particularly well and had road the golden
right arm of Manning all season, I figured they
would not make the mistake San Diego made. In
addition, the NY secondary is short in the middle,
with strong safety 5-foot-8 Jim Leonhard, and TE
Dallas Clark would be a terrible matchup over the
middle against him and the Jet linebackers.

Manning has so many weapons at his disposal,
with five players grabbing at least 47 receptions
this season. Two have 100 grabs on the season
(Wayne and Clark) and four receivers have caught
between four and 10 TD passes.

The over has a 20-14 edge the last 34 Super
Bowls, even though four of the last five went under
the total. What often happens is that since it's the
last game of the season, coaches are less likely to
play ball control and kill the clock if they have a 10-
14 point lead. No coach wants to be remembered
for blowing a double digits lead in the biggest
game of the year, so they often try to put as many
points up as possible. Jimmy Johnson with the
Cowboys was like this, rolling up 34 and 52 points
in consecutive Super Bowls, as was Bill Walsh and
Mike Shanahan.

In addition, since it's the last game of the season,
the trailing team often has to open up the playbook
and even call on trick plays to try and get back in
the game.

Two factors to keep a close eye on for this year's
Super Bowl are the playing field and the weather.
The weather is obvious, as the game is outdoors in
Miami. We won't know the weather until the week
of the game, but remember that three years ago
when the Colts played the Bears on this same field,
it was in a drizzle and the game stayed under the
total.

The playing surface is natural grass, which can
help slow down fast offenses and give a bit of an
edge to defenses. Remember the Greatest Show on
Turf, the Rams of 1999-2004? They were built for
the artificial turf of their home surface giving them
an edge. But when they went on the road and had
to play on grass, the Rams were a different team,
many times far from the offensive machine they
were at home.

For this Super Bowl, the Colts and Saints both play
their home games on artificial turf but now have to
play on grass. The Colts played four games on
grass in 2009 and three were close, a 27-23 win at
Miami (on this field), a 17-15 win at Baltimore and
a 35-31 win at Jacksonville. The Saints had mixed
results on grass, losing 23-10 at Carolina, were
fortunate to win in OT at Washington (33-30), and
won 46-34 at Miami (also on this field). Astute
handicappers look at all the angles, as subtle
factors are just as important to examine when
studying totals and props as overall stats and
trends.

< Back to Article List