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Misleading Stats & NFL Bubble Teams - Scott Spreitzer 12/8/2009

The good news is the Pittsburgh Steelers get to play
the Cleveland Browns this week, a team going
nowhere exceptt to the NFL draft lottery (and high
up). Pittsburgh is 9-3 ATS the last 12 meetings and
has already won 27-14 at home.
The bad news is that the defending champs are
desperate for a victory, sitting at 6-6 and riding a
miserable 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS run. The overall stats
are impressive, ranked 7th in total offense and 5th
in total defense. Yet, clearly not all is well in the
Steel City and there is something missing.
Coach Mike Tomlin has noticed, reading the riot
act to his players following Sunday's stunning 27-
24 collapse to the lowly Oakland Raiders. Tomlin
promised possible sweeping changes to the lineup
for their next game in Cleveland Thursday night.
Tomlin said there is an "undesirable pattern of
behavior" in losing games in the fourth quarter and
that he will take an "aggressive look at potential
changes" in his lineup and his schemes. "I think it's
appropriate we give some guys an opportunity and
see if they can play," Tomlin said.
Specifically, the secondary has been a mess. They
are still without star safety Troy Polamalu but it
goes deeper than that. Veteran cornerback Ike
Taylor possibly could lose his starting job as
Tomlin wants to give rookie cornerbacks Joe
Burnett and Keenan Lewis more time, perhaps even
starts. Why? It wasn't just the late TD allowed to the
anemic Oakland Raiders. Bruce Gradkowski burned
the Steelers for three touchdown passes in the
fourth quarter.
The Steelers are yielding 297.3 yards per game,
but 105.1 of those have come in the fourth quarter.
43 percent of the points they have allowed this
season have come in the fourth quarter. They also
allowed a TD on the final play in a loss to the
Bengals, lost 20-17 in OT at Baltimore, and gave up
an 11-yard TD pass to Oakland with nine seconds
left. It was the fifth time in six losses that the
Steelers couldn't hold a lead in the fourth quarter.
And guess what: Tomlin's background is as a
defensive backs coach, so these problems in the
secondary and don't reflect well on him.
That's a great example of why overall stats don't
always tell the whole story. The Patriots are in a
similar boat, ranked second in total offense, 11th in
total defense. Like the Steelers, many teams long
for that kind of balance and high rankings.
Yet, the Patriots have more problems and holes to
plug than the stats suggest. There is virtually no
pass rush, a young secondary has been shredded
and appears to be regressing, the running game
isn't consistent, and their red zone offense is not
very good for a team ranked second in total offense
with so many weapons. That's a lot of holes to be
looking at in December. That Pats are on a 6-3-1
run under the total as oddsmakers have overvalued
their offense with respect to totals. Another telling
stat: They average 32 ppg at home (6-0 SU 4-2
ATS), just 19 ppg on the road (1-5).
The Baltimore Ravens have decent overall stats,
too, but if you watched their Monday night loss at
Green Bay, you can see they are not playing their
best football of the season, on a 2-3 SU, 1-3-1
ATS run. A struggling Ravens offense was just as
cold as the Green Bay weather, turning the ball over
twice in the red zone. Running back Ray Rice
fumbled inside the 20-yard line in the first quarter,
and quarterback Joe Flacco threw a season-worst
three interceptions, including a costly one in the
end zone in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens dropped one game back of the
Jacksonville Jaguars for the final AFC wild-card
spot and find themselves in a logjam with three
other 6-6 teams in the AFC: the Dolphins, Jets and
Steelers. This is the time of the season where one
needs to look beyond stats at four other key
factors: Weather, scheduling, injuries and coaching.
With the weather getting cold and sometimes
windy in northern cities, that can help good
running teams (Bengals, Jets, Ravens, Titans,
Jaguars) and could be a detriment to teams that
rely more on the pass (Steelers, Patriots).
Injuries change from week to week, but this is the
key stretch run for playoff bubble teams. The
Ravens, Pats and Steelers have problems in the
secondary, for instance, while the Bengals just got
workhorse RB Cedric Benson back from an injury.
Coaching is important for teams that have been in
big games before and know how to keep a club
focused and calm. This is why the Dallas Cowboys
are going to be so interesting to watch this month.
They have a recent history of folding late in the
season and Coach Wade Phillips has a lousy big
game record. The Dallas media are already on him
about it and he got a little snippy at a press
conference this week.
He had to defend a comment about his players
being "winners" when Dallas reporters asked, "Why
do you say they are winners? None of them have
ever won late in the year." It was a fair question. It
may not seem much right now as Dallas is in a
prime spot to make the playoffs and win the
division, but the pressure is clearly on.
And the schedule is rough for the Cowboys:
Chargers, Saints, Redskins and Eagles. Don't be
surprised if the heat gets turned up even higher on
Phillips with a few more losses. The Ravens and
Steelers have to play each other, which could have
huge Wild Card implications. The Jaguars? They
begin a tough three-game stretch against the
Dolphins, Colts and Patriots. So this AFC Wild Card
race is, as Frank Broyles used to say with his
Arkansas drawl, "Wiiiiiiiiiiide open."

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