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Evaluating NFL Schedules - Scott Spreitzer 11/11/2009
We’re deep enough into the season now that
handicappers have to be very careful evaluating
won-lost records.
Early on, you pretty much remember who everyone
played while going 4-0 or 3-2 in the early weeks of
the season Now that we’ve reached the midpoint,
it’s easy to lose track of all the details. You might
give too much credit to a team with a great record
when all they did was outscore a bunch of inferior
opponents. You might write somebody off who had
the misfortune of dealing with a gauntlet of tough
challenges.
That’s why I always make it a point to check in on
strength of schedule evaluations at this stage in the
season. What you learn will help you avoid making
a big mistake or two in key games and will help
find “surprise” squads who seem to catch fire when
all that’s happened is that the schedule softened
up.
There are a variety of places that rank strengths of
schedules in cyberspace. Most reports agree in
general, but might disagree in tiny specifics. One
place will say a team played the 4th tough schedule
while another says it was 9th toughest. One place
will say a team had the easiest schedule of
everyone while another calculation says it was just
26th. The exact rankings don’t really matter much.
You just want to know who’s played a tough
schedule, and who’s played an easy schedule.
Here are the teams so far that there seems to be
clear agreement regarding playing easy schedules:
Indianapolis, Dallas, Philadelphia, Green Bay, the
Giants, Houston, Carolina, Jacksonville, and
Washington.
I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the teams listed
that are way up in the standings start to “cool off”
just a little bit. You can’t keep playing almost
nothing but bad teams all year long! I’m confident
in saying that group as a whole will underachieve
against the spread over the next month. Won-lost
standings strongly influence Las Vegas
pointspreads because the general public bets on
records rather than true power ratings.
What’s really amazing in this particular season is
that we have a couple of teams with poor results
even though they had it easy! Imagine how ugly
things would have gotten in Washington if they
didn’t have so many games against cellar dwellers.
Jacksonville might be bending over backward to get
their head coach fired given how poorly they’ve
performed vs. a weak schedule.
Now, I’m not saying you should blindly bet against
everyone listed in that group. Look for spots where
those teams are clearly “mis-priced” because the
betting markets haven’t properly adjusted for the
issue. Maybe lines will adjust for Indianapolis but
not for Green Bay. It’s our job to learn as much as
we can, then read and react as events unfold.
Here are the teams where there’s agreement they
played difficult schedules: Denver, Baltimore,
Cincinnati, Atlanta, Miami, the Jets, Cleveland,
Oakland, and Tennessee. There are a few teams
there who have very strong records even with the
tough schedules! That could be a good hidden
indicator come playoff time. As bad as Cleveland
and Oakland have looked most weeks, they haven’t
caught many breaks in the schedule.
I’m confident this group as a whole will perform
better than expectations over the next month.
These teams should be getting more respect than
they are given what I’ve learned from years of
studying strength of schedule data at the midway
mark. I’ve found that the underdog record is
particularly strong because you’re getting teams
who are used to challenges. That doesn’t mean the
underdog record of this group is currently strong. It
means it will be from this point forward because
they’re not getting the respect they deserve in the
line as a group.
With this group, be sure to look for pointspreads
that make you scratch your head. You’re probably
on to something if you’re asking yourself “Doesn’t
Vegas know these guys have played a tough
schedule?” I should say here that oddsmakers
aren’t oblivious to this factor. But, they’re basing
the lines on how they expect the public to bet, and
the public generally is oblivious!
Give it a shot. Save the lists in this article, and
monitor the situation through the month of
November. This is a fluid stat because a team’s
strength of schedule adjusts every week. Tough
Novembers will balance out things for the teams
who’ve had it easy. Soft Novembers will balance
things out for the teams who’ve had it tough. By
the time December rolls around, there will be a
whole new set of polluted results for us to adjust
to!
If you’re trying to beat the spread, your schedule is
ALWAYS tough! I hope today’s suggestions will help
make things a little easier.
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