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Foreign Soil Failure - Tom Stryker 10/9/2009

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to determine that
college football teams are more comfortable
playing at home than they are on the road.
Practicing in their own backyard, sleeping in their
own beds and being able to relax with their
teammates and friends goes a long way. Of course,
like some things in life, too much good can lead to
trouble.

When I started researching this week’s card, I was
looking to see how well teams performed during a
series of consecutive home games. After hours of
countless searches, I didn’t really find much. I
looked at how well home teams did in back-to-
back home games coming off a straight up loss,
how they performed at home off a pair of SU and
ATS home wins and how successful they were as a
host coming off back-to-back straight up home
losses. There were a few areas that showed profit
but nothing that really kept my interest.

Then, by accident, I stumbled across a technical
situation that was rare but extremely effective.
Since 1980, this specific set of parameters only
delivered 35 plays – an average of 1.2 selections
per year. Even though there may be only one play
per season, the reward was significant. Take a look
at this technical gem.

Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any college football
road team provided they check in off a string of
three (or more) home favorite straight up wins and
covers.

29 Year ATS Record = 24-11 ATS for 68.6 percent!

This Week’s Play = OREGON STATE

Winning three games at home is a tremendous
accomplishment for any college football team.
Winning and covering those three games all priced
as a favorite make the feat even more incredible.
There is one team on Saturday’s card that had done
exactly that. Stanford is on quite a roll right now
and enters Saturday’s game at Oregon State off a
nifty 3-0 SU and ATS home favorite run. The
Cardinal steamrolled San Jose State (-17’ WON 42-
17), smashed Washington (-9’ WON 34-14) and
drilled UCLA (-5 WON 24-16) all in the comforts of
Stanford Stadium. Needless to say, this is going to
be a tough encore for Jim Harbaugh’s troops.

There are a couple of ways to tighten up this
system that squeezes out even more profit. If our
guest checks in off an emotional conference battle,
this situation crashes to a stiff 4-16 ATS. Stanford
faced UCLA in its last game and the Cardinal
applies.

That tightener is noteworthy but this next
parameter really makes this investment pop. With
our 4-16 ATS in hand, this system dips to a
stunning 0-12 ATS provided our “play on” host
battled on the road in their last contest. Oregon
State tackled Arizona State in the desert last week
and that means the Beavers apply to this perfect
situation!

Stanford fits the bill as our Foreign Soil Failure this
week and the Cardinal is in trouble. Good luck with
Oregon State on Saturday men!

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