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NFL 2009 From Rags to Riches? - Scott Spreitzer 8/18/2009

People talk about parity all the time in pro football.
“True” parity doesn’t exist, because you have some
good teams and some bad teams. Several coaches
are proven winners. Several others are so new to
the field that they haven’t established yet whether
they can win or not. There aren’t 32 “starting”
caliber quarterbacks to fill out the 32 teams. So,
there are differences.

But, teams are more evenly packed in this sport
than in college football, or even pro basketball,
where you’d figure there would be plenty of talent
to go around. And, there’s a clear driving force that
keeps teams at the bottom motivated to work there
way back toward the top.

I was thinking about that the other day when
looking over the 2009 prospects for the worst
teams in 2008. There are seasons where you can
tell that a disaster is imminent. A bad coach hasn’t
been fired yet. Management is stubbornly sticking
with a quarterback with proven limitations.
Ownership refuses to loosen the purse strings in a
way that would bring in a superstar talent.
Handicappers should be aware that seemingly all of
last year’s worst teams are in position to improve
this season.

Let’s take a look. Here’s a list of all the teams who
finished at 6-10 or worse in 2008. There’s a total
of nine. That tells you something interesting right
there. Fully 23 of the league’s 32 teams were within
a game of .500 or better! Any team with a flat tire
saw the rest of the league race by them.

GREEN BAY (6-10)
The Packers were disappointed with their record,
but had very good stats for a 6-10 team. In fact,
they had the stats of a playoff contender. Teams
typically play to their stats rather than having their
stats adjust to match their record. They also have a
head coach and quarterback who learned from their
mistakes in 2008. I wouldn’t be surprised to see
this team compete for the NFC North title.

JACKSONVILLE (5-11)
A traditional power kind of hit a wall because of
injuries, and what were reported to be attitude
problems in the locker room with certain
personnel. Those players are no longer with the
team, so many expect the Jaguars to look like their
usual selves this coming season. Based on prior
form this decade, 5-11 was an aberration.

OAKLAND (5-11)
Oakland changed coaches a month into the season,
and showed improvement under Tom Cable. They
will either have a young quarterback who’s
maturing with experience, or will go with a veteran
in Jeff Garcia who’s better than a 5-11 quarterback.
It might be a baby step forward rather than a big
leap. But, you could see potential improvement
here.

CINCINNATI (4-11-1)
The Bengals lost star quarterback Carson Palmer to
injury last season. They’re clearly better than 4-11-
1 when he’s healthy. This is also a team with some
chemistry issues that may have been dealt with.
Maybe it’s going to take a coaching change to really
turn things around completely. In terms of 2009
expectations, these guys will be better just by
staying healthy.

CLEVELAND (4-12)
The last five teams on the list all went 4-12 or
worse last year, and all changed head coaches. That
right there is a good indicator for improvement. If
the prior coach was in over his head, that’s not an
issue any more. If the prior coach simply lost his
players, they’re likely to go all out for the new guy
because they want to keep their jobs. In the case of
the Browns, they also had the worst quarterback
play in the league last year. Mathematically, they
have to improve in that area as well.

SEATTLE (4-12)
The Seahawks were a perennial playoff team that
was ravaged by injuries last year, just as a veteran
coach was in his lame duck season before retiring.
There will be a new coach, more healthy bodies,
and much more intensity this season.

ST. LOUIS (2-14)
The Rams were just going through the motions
most of last season. Now the former defensive
coordinator of the NY Giants is in charge of the
team to make sure that doesn’t happen. Injuries
were also a big deal with this franchise last year.
One of the biggest causes of bad seasons is
injuries. One of the main reasons those teams
bounce back the following year is that they’re
healthier, and the bad injury luck is hitting other
franchises.

KANSAS CITY (2-14)
Another new head coach who came from a
successful staff. Plus the Chiefs are very likely to
have much better quarterback play.

DETROIT (0-16)
It’s obviously impossible to get WORSE than 0-16!
The Lions will be better this year by definition.

It’s not really going out on a limb to say that teams
who finished 2-14 or worse are going to get better
or that traditional playoff teams who had an off
year are going to bounce back. But, this is what
handicapping is all about! It’s not going out on a
limb, it’s realizing the common sense stuff that the
public is missing. Las Vegas lines are based on
public perceptions and you can make good money
by exploiting what they’re not thinking about!

*Teams like the Lions, Chiefs, and Rams won’t get
much respect in the line early in the season even
though they’ve made clear improvements. They
were 4-44 combined last year, and the public just
won’t bet on teams like that!

*Teams like the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Bengals
won’t be priced like playoff contenders even though
they were all playoff contenders before injuries and
chemistry issues set in.

*Teams like the Packers and Browns may be much
more competitive than the final standings from last
year would suggest.

We need to be thinking about issues like this now
so we're ready to hit the ground running when the
season starts in a few weeks. Vegas lines are often
the softest right out of the gate. And, that’s
because the public is making bad early season bets
based on old perceptions!

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