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On Base Percentage Revisited - Scott Spreitzer 8/4/2009
I was doing my daily check of the MLB stats that I
consider to be the most important for winning
handicapping and wagering and I thought it
was a good time to re-visit the all-important, OBP
category.
*The hottest team in baseball at the time, the New
York Yankees were on top of the heap in the
American League in on-base percentage by a good
bit. Their mark was a very strong .358.
*The Los Angeles Angels have been on a tear for a
few months now. They’ve been one of the biggest
profit teams of 2009 for Las Vegas bettors. They
were second in the AL with a .351 mark.
*Tampa Bay, a team that’s kicked things up a notch
in recent weeks in an effort to get back to the
playoffs, was third at .348. You can probably see
where this is headed. The teams playing the best
ball in the American League heading into the first
week of August, were those getting the most
runners on base!
*Over in the National League the LA Dodgers have
had the best won-lost record since the get-go.
They’re comfortably in the first spot in OBP in the
Senior Circuit with a .352 mark.
*The defending World Series Champion Philadelphia
Phillies have been red-hot in recent weeks. That
surge has them up to third in the league in on-
base percentage with a .341 mark.
I’ve always emphasized the importance of using
on-base percentage to evaluate offenses. You can’t
win games unless you’re getting people on base
and scoring runs.
Now, I don’t want to suggest that on-base
percentage is the ONLY thing that matters. Pitching
is obviously important too. For example,
Washington and Cleveland have strong on-base
percentages offensively, but their pitching staffs are
so bad that the teams are horrible anyway. You
have to have both pitching and offense to make a
run at a championships. My concern is when
people devote way too much of their efforts
studying pitching, and not nearly enough studying
offense.
Power matters at the plate as well. An offense that
does nothing but draw walks will have a great on-
base percentage, but won’t maximize their scoring
opportunities with big hits that drive home all the
base runners. Championship teams have power in
addition to getting people on base.
Studies have shown, though, that on-base
percentage is the straw that stirs the drink. Power
without baserunners just gives you the occasional
solo home run. Pitching without offense has you
losing too many 3-2 or 2-1, type games. Getting
people on base actually creates edges that build on
themselves.
Consider:
*Batting averages go UP when runners are on base.
Some TV announcers are convinced the opposite is
true. But, they’re looking at batting averages in late
game pressure situations when an ace reliever is on
the mound, not the full game numbers featuring a
cross-section of pitchers.
Think about it. If a runner is on first base, the first-
baseman stands on the base to hold him. This
reduces the ground he can cover (and his reaction
time on line shots), allowing more space for hit
balls to make it through the infield.
Also, if there’s a runner on third, the infield will
often be pulled in to cut off the run at the plate.
Bringing fielders in reduces their reaction time, and
limits the amount of space they can cover on hit
balls. Managers live with the difference hoping that
a ball hit right at somebody will prevent a run. Over
time, batting averages go up.
There’s no counter-force to bring averages back
down. So, hitting with runners on base will increase
batting averages over the long haul, which puts
more runners on base! You can see how that would
explode into big innings.
*Pitchers can throw with less pressure when given a
lead. There’s more margin for error. They can be
more aggressive at the plate knowing a solo home
run doesn’t hurt them. You hear pitchers talk about
this all the time. A tight game is a pressure cooker.
Pitching with a lead allows them to throw at their
very best.
Now, combine those too and you have teams with
high on-base percentages creating big innings for
themselves and allowing their starting pitchers and
relievers to thrive in the friendliest of conditions.
This is why on-base percentage matters so much!
And, turning it around, it’s why a bad on-base
percentage is such a drain on a team. Teams who
don’t get people on base have very few big innings.
Their pitchers have to be perfect if they want to get
a win. That creates a cycle of frustration that
implodes over a long season. Maybe that’s the best
way to think about it. Teams with high on-base
percentages give themselves the best chance to
“explode” in the standings, posting a great record
that helps them reach the playoffs. Teams with low
on-base percentages are likely to implode over
time and fall to the bottom.
Again, pitching and power matter too. They just
matter a little less than you’ve been previously
thinking. Ideally, you’ll be betting on teams that
have everything working in their favor, and you’ll
be betting them at value prices. See if you can
spend these next two months exploiting the
strengths of the high on-base teams and going
against those teams whose seasons are going down
the tubes.
High on-base teams throwing their best pitchers
are great bets at affordable prices (look at the
moneyline profits of the Dodgers and Angels this
year). Low on-base teams throwing their worst
pitchers are horrible bets at any price.
Handicappers who don’t use this stat are way off
base!
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