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Evaluating New Pitchers - Scott Spreitzer 6/10/2009

We’ve had a rash of young (and not so young)
pitchers getting starts lately Major League Baseball.
It’s very difficult for handicappers of all types to
make proper decisions when a guy they’ve never
heard of gets a start.

The public tends to automatically bet against a new
starter. They figure if he was any good, he would
have been starting already! Of course, all eventual
stars were no-names at some point. Sometimes the
off-rotation starter is a stiff who’s going to get
rocked. Sometimes he’s the next big thing.

Professional wagerers are better informed, but they
still make some mistakes. They’ll bet heavily on a
guy who had great stats in the minors only to find
he’s not ready to shine in the majors just yet.

What’s the right approach?

Here are some guidelines I follow:

*Look to go against any long reliever who’s getting
a spot start because of an injury or a doubleheader.
Long relievers are rarely “budding” stars who are
about to take the sport by storm. These days,
franchises keep their best young arms in the
minors working in a normal rotation until it’s time
to call them up. The public basically treats all
middle relievers like no-names because they
weren't listed as starters before. There’s a BIG
difference between a journeyman long reliever and
a promising call-up, even if they both seem like
no-names to casual fans. You need to think of any
middle reliever as a guy who’s likely to allow a few
runs, and probably only go five innings.

*Look to go against any minor league call up who
has unimpressive numbers in the minors. You’d be
surprised how often guys like this get a look. Bad
teams are out of arms and they need to start
SOMEBODY! Well, if the guy wasn’t getting people
out consistently at Double A or Triple A, he’s
unlikely to thrive in the majors right away. I’ve
noticed in recent years a lot of really tall pitchers,
or guys with tricky deliveries will get shots even
with mediocre minor league stats. The team is
hoping to steal a few good innings with the
element of surprise. It doesn’t work very often.

*Look to take minor league call-ups with a lot of
buzz. Thanks to the internet and fantasy baseball,
there’s a lot more coverage of young pitchers than
there used to be. The guys who rank high on
prospect lists and who are posting good stats in
the minors are likely to do better than the public
realizes at first. Remember, the odds are primarily
based on public perception and the public will bet
against anybody they haven’t heard of. The public
isn’t reading the reports on potential phenoms. You
need to be! It’s become very clear in recent years
that professional wagerers are reading these
reports. You’ll often see “steam” (big line moves) in
the direction of young hotshots because
professional wagerers think they’re going to
succeed. The pro’s are right more than they’re
wrong.

*Emphasize strikeout stats when evaluating a
pitcher. Statheads have known for years that there’s
a strong correlation between strikeouts and long
term success. If you see a guy has 7.0 K’s per nine
innings or higher (and the young phenoms are A
LOT HIGHER in the minor leagues), he’s a pitcher
you want to invest in. Pitchers with K per nine
inning ratios of 5.0 or less are likely to be shaky.
Some middle relief emergency starters have
numbers that bad. Blowout fodder. Personally, I put
more weight on strikeouts than I do ERA when
evaluating new starters.

*Pay close attention to walks. Pitchers with control
trouble in the minors won’t see that disappear in
the majors. If anything, it gets worse at first
because top notch hitters know how to work a
count. Don’t invest in high walk pitchers. They put
too many guys on base, and they don’t last deep
into games. If they manage to walk a tightrope for
five innings, they’re replaced by a poor middle
reliever who might blow the game for you anyway.

In short:
TAKE pitchers with high K-rates and impressive
overall stats. Trust the buzz with hot prospects.

PASS if a pitcher with a high K-rate also has a high
walk rate.

GO AGAINST pitchers with poor K-rates, which will
cover many middle relievers getting a spot start.

GO AGAINST pitchers with mediocre minor league
stats, especially if walks are a problem

As a general rule, the public goes against too many
“take” and “pass” pitchers because of their knee jerk
reaction to bet against anyone they haven’t heard
of. This prevents them from posting a solid win
percentage even if they do win some blowouts
against the worst of the no-names.

Hey, it’s only June. There are going to be a lot
MORE of these pitchers you’ve never heard of
getting starts the rest of this season! Hopefully,
these thoughts will help you stay in the black.

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