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College Tournament Capping: Part 1 - Scott Spreitzer 3/1/2009

Man, the college basketball season is just flying by!

We’ve got the first postseason tournaments ready
to tip off this week:

*Horizon League First Round: Tuesday
*Ohio Valley Conference First Round: Tuesday
*Sun Belt Conference First Round: Wednesday
*Missouri Valley Conference First Round: Thursday
*Colonial Athletic Association First Round: Friday
*West Coast Conference First Round: Friday
*Southern Conference First Round: Friday
*Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference First Round:
Friday

Longtime fans know that these mid-major
conferences have their tournaments a week early,
while the big boys from the best conferences are
still finishing their regular seasons. So, we’ll have
all of these lower profile tourneys this week, then
the ACC, Big East, and everyone else will have their
tournaments next week.

I’m going to spend the next two articles talking
about the differing approaches you have to take
when handicapping conference tournaments. There
really is a big difference between the mid-majors
and the majors in terms of what the best teams
have to do in their events.

*Some of these leagues will only see their
tournament champion earn a trip to the NCAA
Tournament. So, the best teams have to win. It’s
not like the ACC or Big East where anyone with a
winning conference record can probably relax.

*Few of these mid major conferences will have more
than two teams even under consideration. Those
two teams better reach the finals, or the selection
committee will find some reason to stick the 7th
place team from a major conference in the Big
Dance instead. The pressure is on ALL good teams
to really produce.

*The host site can play a big role in the dynamics
of these events, as some teams will have large
rooting contingents while others might as well be
playing in a mausoleum. It’s vital that you factor in
varying degrees of potential “home court”
advantage even for teams who aren’t playing on a
true home court. The major conferences usually
draw decent crowds no matter where they’re being
played.

I’ll outline some tips for the major conferences next
week. Today, here are some keys for handicapping
the mid-major tournaments you’ll be attacking in
the immediate future:

*Respect the tournament favorites. You don’t want
to ask them to cover huge prices because they’re
pacing themselves for a busy weekend. Lay small or
medium spreads with the top seeds, but don’t lay
double digits.

*Respect the “local” teams, meaning anyone making
a short trip to the site. Add in at least 1-2 points
for “home court” just because the crowd is likely to
make a difference in a close game.

*Respect the teams that play the best defense. It’s
very important that you study defensive stats from
the regular season to get a sense of who defends
the paint well, and who defends poorly. In
halfcourt, playoff style basketball…this is typically
the tie-breaker that will win the game for
somebody. When the top seeds are also the best
defensive teams in the league (looking at field goal
percentage allowed rather than overall scoring),
they have a very good shot at running the table.

*Respect teams with good guard play. This is a
hallmark of tournament handicapping. You have to
treasure every possession. Teams with good guards
will have more successful possessions. Teams with
erratic guards will have more “lost” possessions
where they turn the ball over or force up a bad
shot. Sometimes a team with shaky guards will
survive a first round game because they shot well.
Don’t bet on their good fortune continuing.

*Go against any team that just shot lights out from
three-point range the prior game. It’s very difficult
to string together hot shooting performances.
Defense remains consistent, but shooting blows hot
and cold. Go against anybody who just blew hot!
Inconsistency is much more common in these
lesser leagues, so you really have to pay attention.

*Go against any team that advanced while giving
most of their minutes to the starters. You have to
have depth to win a tournament. Any team playing
on back-to-back days with a six-man rotation or
almost all of the minutes going to the five starters
will be in trouble. Some mid majors are quality
teams with five fresh guys and one star…but
become very mortal with five tired guys and a star
who doesn’t have his legs any more.

*Remember that “parity” means taking the
underdogs…but “superiority” means it’s okay to lay
small spreads! That’s probably become the most
important aspect of college basketball tournament
handicapping the past few seasons. When is a
game truly a toss up? When does a team have a
legitimate edge they can exploit to get the win? In
toss ups, any points you get from the oddsmaker
are a gift. If there’s a legitimate edge in play, the
spread isn’t going to matter because the superior
team will pull away and coast to a cover. Do the
work so you know how to tell the difference
between scenarios!

Don’t make the mistake of waiting for the “big”
tournaments to start before you really focus on
handicapping the postseason. Some of the biggest
edges every March come in these smaller events
that have limited TV coverage and limited betting
action from the general public. They’re low priority
for the oddsmakers, but high priority for
professional wagerers.

Do your research, make intelligent decisions, and
you’ll start building a bankroll you can keep adding
to all the way through March Madness.

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